Part three of my getting-caught-up recap will cover the rest of the amateur games I saw since the Kelly-Ferrara recap that weren’t covered in part two of this never-ending recap series.

Inside this report, I’ll have yet another Casey Kelly update (more here, here, and here). And for those of you sick of me talking about Casey Kelly, there’s other stuff in this post as well.

Inside this report we’ll also cover an intriguing, polished prep arm that may be Gainesville-bound, along with a second impression of emerging 2009 draft prep 3B Bobby Borchering (first here), a roundup of interesting prep prospects, potential first-rounders that could be headed to Sarasota, and more after the jump…

(Pictured right: Clearwater Central Catholic senior RHP Ryan Weber)

Casey Kelly, SS/RHP, Sarasota HS

We’ll get started with senior and top 2008 draft prospect Casey Kelly and his Sarasota Sailors, who also surprisingly lost in the second round of the state playoffs to Lakeland HS (ongoing theme from part two of the recap series with Mychal Gives’ Plant HS being upset in round two). I saw Kelly’s first round game versus Gaither HS, checking in to see Kelly one more time before his season ended.

As mentioned repeatedly here, here, and here Kelly has all the makings of a face-of-the-franchise shortstop that, at 6′3, can already play a near big-league caliber shortstop and has a full ride to Tennessee to play QB.

He has reached the mid-90s on the mound and flashes a consistent plus breaking ball as a first-round caliber prospect on the mound. The only question that remains is how his bat plays. With talk of an out-of-the-box deal to a big market team at the end of the first round and strong rumors of him going as high at #7 to Cincinnati, it appears many teams are buying.

For me, I buy the plus defense, plus arm, above-average wheels and plus-plus makeup; it’s hard no to. I think a power projection could be anywhere from average to plus, closer to plus on the raw power side, because he’s got great bat speed, body torque, and some loft. For reference, plus/60 converts to 20-23 HR power and the ability to take the ball out to dead centerfield in a big league park, with a wood bat.

The real question is on the ability to make contact and I’m still undecided to a degree. I’ll post a full scouting report once I finish with the part three of the News & Notes columns with an FSL recap. To tide you over until then, I made a compilation of some pitching and hitting clips I have taken of Kelly into one video. Sorry, no defensive clips since I didn’t feel like recording the entire game, you’ll just have to take my word for it.

Ryan Weber, RHP, Clearwater Central Catholic

Weber is a senior and fringe 2009 draft prospect who, for me, is likely to go to Florida and pitch for the Gators.

He was dominating in this outing against Bishop Verot HS from Ft. Myers as his team also dominated in a 12-0 win in 5 innings (mercy rule) to move on. He worked from 88-91 with plus run and sink from an effortless motion. He also has a solid-average tight slider that is pretty maxed-out, and a changeup that doesn’t move any more than his fastball, which isn’t bad, but also isn’t more than just an average change of pace. His command is easily above-average, he knows how to pitch, and he had a great approach and feel to pitching.

That being said, he has three solid-average pitches and above-average to plus command, which is all very attractive, but not as much in a short high school righty.

A team may like him enough to pop him in the 3rd round this year, but given the lack of projection and out-pitch, he’s more of a 4th-5th round prospect that will have to prove himself at each level as he goes. I’ll bet a team won’t be willing to meet his price this year, but likely would three years from now with an SEC track record. I might be inclined to pay the price this year, but I’ll wait for a second look later in the playoffs.

In a related note, CCC is a powerhouse in the 3A classification with multiple D-1 prospects, and looking at the bracket, it appears that a clash between the two totally-loaded perennial powerhouses of the classification, Eric Hosmer’s American Heritage HS and Weber’s CCC squad is in order for the 3A state championship. Those two teams may combine for a dozen Division-1 prospects on one field.

Here’s a look at the video I took of Weber from CCC’s blowout win:

Notes

- The Florida state semifinals and finals for each of the 6 classifications will be in Sarasota at the Reds’ Ed Smith Stadium on May 14-20 (in driving distance) and there are still top prospects for the 2008 Draft that I haven’t been able to see due to distance, such as 1B Eric Hosmer, C Adrian Nieto, and LHP Brett DeVall.

- In the loss to CCC, Bishop Verot HS third baseman Bobby Borchering (pictured right) still impressed with his hit-ability. I saw him earlier in the Sarasota Classic (recap) where he hit 4 HR’s in 3 games and won hitter of the tournament. While he had more trouble than that with Ryan Weber’s stuff, he battled and showed he was able to handle high-level pitching as a junior.

Borchering is well-known for his hitting prowess on the showcase and travel team circuits and is a projectable 6′4 switch-hitting third baseman with serious power and a chance to stay at the hot corner. He’s still one of the top 5 juniors in the state for me and a potential top-two round pick in 2009. You’ll be seeing him on the 2009 Draft prospects list as well.

- Other solid prep prospects I saw this week included Middleton High SS/RHP Corey Thomas and Dunedin High’s SS/RHP Jacob Rogers and RHP Clay Kollenbaum.

Thomas is a very athletic shortstop with good defensive actions, some bat speed, and some wheels, but is a little rough around the edges. He also has been in the low 90s on the mound, but in Middleton’s last game of the year he was working at 86-89 with a below-average slurvy breaking ball. Thomas has signed with South Florida and it appears he’ll end up there.

Kollenbaum was the starter and pitched the first six innings for Dunedin against Givens’ Plant squad. He worked at 88-90 and touched 91 with a slurvy mid-70s three-quarter curveball that flashed average, and I didn’t see a changeup. His command was solid, and the 6′5, 210 righty’s deceptive two-part delivery will serve him well next year for Jacksonville U.

Rogers is a big 6′5 infielder who has signed with UCF for his hitting prowess, but he helped Dunedin to a big upset acting as it’s closer, working at 90-91 and showed feel for an 83 mph changeup that may make him a two-way player for the Knights.

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Part two of my getting-caught-up recap will cover some of the amateur games I saw since the Kelly-Ferrara recap, while the others will be covered in part three which jointly will span the spectrum of mid-range to high-profile and cover 2008 and 2009 draft prospects.

The college game I caught last Friday was a matchup of the perennial power Rice Owls and my alma-mater UCF Knights. The Knights took game one from Rice’s sophomore ace RHP Ryan Berry while Knights junior RHP Kyle Sweat showed the best stuff I’ve seen from him in three years. Of course, my Knights still lost Saturday and Sunday by a combined two runs.

Inside this post we have reports on Rice starter Ryan Berry, UCF starter Kyle Sweat, top 2009 prep hitter Mychal Givens first and second impressions, and two impact freshman college arms, all after the jump…

(Pictured right: consensus top 2009 Draft prep hitter, Plant HS shortstop Mychal Givens)

Ryan Berry, RHP, Rice

Berry is a sophomore ace and Friday starter for the Owls, has been very good this year against tough competition, and checked in as the #19 prospect on Baseball America’s pre-season list of the top college sophomores.

Against UCF, he worked at 89-91 with his solid-average two-seam fastball featuring good sink and run, and worked primarily with that pitch and his go-to slider which flashed above-average at 78-81 with tight, late bite. He also mixed in a sharp spike curveball at 81-83 to change the hitter’s eye level that was solid-average at times due more to it’s late break than it’s depth. He rarely used a 77-79 mph changeup that was pretty straight but could be average with some work.

Berry has a somewhat quirky delivery, employing the drop-and-drive method with a short leg kick and an arm angle slightly above the common high three-quarters angle. He does project to have above-average command and flashed some of that tonight it what was, for him, a poor outing.

Take a look at the extremely poor quality video I took:

Berry should be on our upcoming top 2009 draft prospects list; he has a limited upside with solid-average stuff, but good command, deception, and track record should get him comfortably in the top three rounds next June and possibly as high as the sandwich round.

(Photo credit: Brandon Helwig, UCFsports.com)

Kyle Sweat, RHP, Central Florida

Sweat is a junior starter for UCF that become the default Friday starter when senior RHP Jaager Good got hurt and no one else stepped up. He was drafted out of high school and came into UCF with some big expectations, flashing some good stuff but lots of inconsistencies.

As mentioned above, this was Sweat’s best stuff I had seen from his three years at UCF and late in his junior campaign, has picked the right time to get hot. Against Rice, he worked from 87-90 early on (his velocity most of the year), then in the late innings sat at 91-92 and touched 93 (his peak high school velocity that had almost disappeared at UCF). The fastball would flatten out at times but had good movement with run down in the zone.

His go-to pitch every other time I had seen him was a curveball that flashed above-average that was a good chase pitch, but for this outing he used a fringy slider at 81-82 mph that was more just a different look from his go-to pitch for this outing, a changeup that flashed above-average I had never seen from Sweat. It had fade, depth, deception, and got swings and misses from good Rice hitters at 77-79 mph.

Early in the year, Sweat looked like a guy that was sure to come back his senior year has a mature workhorse body and good command with momentum here at the end of the year that makes him a solid 6th-9th round value.

(Photo credit: Brandon Helwig, UCFsports.com)

Mychal Givens, SS/RHP, Plant HS (Tampa)

Givens is a junior and top 2009 draft prospect that some sources say is the top high school junior in the country (others say second-best). I got a chance to see Givens play two games this week, the second one being his team’s surprise loss to Dunedin High in the second round of the state playoffs in front of a rowdy crowd of a few thousand at the Blue Jays complex in Dunedin.

Givens has all the makings of a first-round prep shortstop with a body that won’t outgrow the position, true shortstop actions with above-average defensive tools, and a quick release from a good arm that sits in the low 90s on the mound. He’s also an excellent athlete and basketball standout that made an amazing play at pitcher versus Dunedin as he charged a swinging bunt to field and flip to the catcher in one motion while he was running past home plate. He’s a vocal leader, good student, and likable personality with great makeup. While he’s clearly a shortstop prospect, he pitches at 90-92 with some run and flashes an above-average sweeping curveball and an average changeup with lade fade.

His speed is deceptive: he looks more quick than fast and somewhat labored once underway, but I got him at 3.87 to first from the right side on a bunt (confirmed on video) and he’s a 55 to 60 runner.

So there’s all the reasons to like Givens, but there are some things I saw that I didn’t like from these two games. Givens certainly has more upside as a shortstop as he lacked feel on the mound and throws from a true sidearm angle, which is very effective in the 90s versus high school competition, but would project him as a set-up man at best in pro ball.

As far as his swing goes, the elements are there and he has shown the ability to hit with wood against top competition, but the mechanics break down too often for me, and with his smallish frame (I’d estimate 5′10, 170) and lack of leverage, he projects to have average power at best. He struggled to square the ball up against average to good pitching when I saw him and showed bad habits in lunging at the ball, being flat-footed, out on his front foot, and an intricate toe-touch I’m not crazy about. Still, those are things that don’t become problems until professional ball, so he was still clearly the best player on the field.

I think Givens compares favorably to past hyped shortstop prospects like Jays’ SS prospect Justin Jackson or Padres SS prospect Drew Cumberland. Both were late-first to supplemental round prospects with limited ceiling or warts at the plate, a long track record of success, great defense, and the makeup to succeed with all eyes on them. Givens will also definitely be in our upcoming 2009 draft prospects list.

Notes

- There were two impressive freshmen that pitched in the UCF-Rice game, both with top-3 rounds potential for the quickly-approaching 2010 MLB Draft, the Owls’ LHP Matt Evers and the Knights’ RHP Cody Allen

Evers was a highly-touted recruit that looks like he could be Rice’s next lefty relief ace, following in the footsteps of senior LHP Cole St. Clair as he leaves after this season. Evers worked at 89-91 from a deceptive low 3/4 arm angle that creates excellent movement. He usually threw two-seamers with running action, but on one pitch Evers threw what looked like a slider and as the scouts and Rice players charting pitches looked down to note the pitch, we all then looked up to see it was 90 mph on our guns and merely his cutter. His actual slider was 81-82 and flashed above-average with late bite while he also threw a changeup at 82-83 mph with excellent deception and late depth that was also above-average. As a 6′3, 210 lb lefty with the makings of three above-average pitches, on second thought, Evers should probably be in the rotation next year. Here’s some super-grainy footage of Evers from the UCF game:

Allen actually couldn’t find the zone in a handful of pitches versus Rice and was quickly pulled, but I saw him pitching well a few times earlier in the year. Out of the bullpen, the Boone HS product has been sitting at 90-93 with some running action and a 75-77 sweeping two-plane curveball that flashed above-average, along with a feel for an average changeup. He is a maxed-out 6′1, 200 lb pitcher with solid command and mechanics. UCF’s starting pitching struggles this year found Allen starting at times and he should continue in that role next season as a sophomore.

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The scouting road has been taking me all over creation of late, but I return to you with a scouting report on Old Dominion junior RHP Dan Hudson.

Hudson had huge buzz building behind him as I went to see him for the first time in the Cape Cod League. He was a guy that was popping up on everyone’s watch list after a fast start in which he piled up huge strikeout numbers. But, when I got to see him, and saw him again and again, I came away unconvinced that the buzz was warranted.

Granted, I think Hudson, a pitcher with a strikeout slider out of Old Dominion, is a very legitimate prospect but not the type of pitcher he was being heralded as early last summer. Needless to say, Hudson has faltered this spring despite posting, once again, huge strikeout numbers and having a sturdy 6′4, 215 lb frame.

And, I think that will allow a team to grab a very solid relief pitching prospect (which I think is where he belongs) somewhere in the 5th or 6th round. Bottom line: he’s not as good as originally hyped to be but much better than what he’s shown this spring. Find out more in his scouting report after the jump…

Dan Hudson, RHP, Harwich Mariners (Old Dominion)

Pitch - Present/Future Grades

Fastball - 45/50

Slider - 60/60

Curveball - 35/35

Changeup - 45/45

Command - 50/50

Physical Description - Extra large, thick frame. Definitely some projection left, has room to muscle up his lower half. Physically mature with wide shoulders and long arms.

Fastball - 87-89 MPH, reportedly was throwing a couple ticks harder. Looked uncomfortable in outings attended. Not overpowering in this effort but late life allows him to still miss bats. Must work ahead, however, because his pure velocity isn’t enough to beat hitters inside. Doesn’t hold velocity in mid-late innings. Looks like a future reliever.

Slider - Hard, 75-77 MPH breaking ball. A legitimate plus pitch, throws with conviction and can spot it in just about any count. Relies heavily on it. True slider with hard, tight, two plane break. Devastating against righties. Sometimes falls in love with it, hitters appear to sit on it. Must develop some complimentary pitches. Plus pitch.

Curveball - Slow 72-75 MPH curveball. Telegraphs it. Changes arm angle to a more over the top slight, giving it away very quickly. Lacks snap and hangs it up in the zone. Not confident in this pitch. Not an effective pitch, should consider bagging it.

Changeup - 76-78, lacks feel for this pitch. Good fade due to arm angle but can’t throw it for strikes. Only uses it when he’s way ahead and buries it. Needs this pitch versus lefties. Often turns it over.

Mechanics - Has a lot of flaws. Doesn’t drive towards the plate. Spins off his front foot towards first base. Very deceptive on righties but his changing arm angles on breaking pitches makes him very inconsistent in terms of command. Weight rushes towards home plate. Pitches from a low-3/4 arm angle. Very deceptive. Not a clean arm motion, arm straightens out far behind his back. Doesn’t use lower half, could be a serious injury risk. Extra quick arm.

Notes - Tough on righties but struggles versus lefties. Needs an improved changeup or another weapon to be an effective starter. Works quickly, probably too quickly. Has mechanical flaws, if fixed, could greatly improve velocity. Definite upside. Good all around athlete. Needs to change speeds more. More of a thrower right now with some plus stuff, must become more of a pitcher.

Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 51
Present Group: P, Future Group: D
Projected Role: Middle Reliever
Draft Projection: 5th-6th round pick
Overall Comparison: Paul Quantrill (taller version)

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I’ve been all over the state the last week, and while that has meant less frequent posting, it also means tons of stuff is in the hopper for the next few days.

This is a very busy for scouts with crosschecker season in full effect for top draft prospects and the minor league season hitting it’s stride when “it’s still early in the season” is no longer an explanation for poor performance.

This article will cover the first batch of games I saw last week, starting with an awkward 10:30 AM start for a Clearwater-Sarasota game.

Also in this update: a Tampa-Fort Myers matchup, and reports on Yankees RHP Ivan Nova, Reds LHP Travis Wood, Reds 3B Juan Francisco, and Phillies RHP Edgar Garcia, all after the jump…

(Pictured Right: Yankees prospect RHP Ivan Nova)

Kicking off this update as mentioned in the lead-in is an awkward 10:30 AM start for last Wednesday’s Clearwater-Sarasota matchup. It was something that happened at most FSL stadiums that week, and the crowds for each game consisted of about 1,000 screaming kids for the first 5 innings (then back to school, I suppose), along with 12 confused seniors and 5 scouts staying for the full 9 innings, for obviously different reasons.

As for the game, it was a bit of a letdown as the top hitting prospects Drew Stubbs and Adrian Cardenas didn’t play, and you’d have to think the start time had a lot to do with it, as each lineup was littered with backups. As for the pitching matchup, it featured two intriguing prospects with Clearwater RHP Edgar Garcia and Sarasota LHP Travis Wood.

Edgar Garcia, RHP, Clearwater (Phillies)

Garcia worked from 87-89 and touched 91 with a flat four-seamer that lacked movement and he frequently threw up in the zone. His out-pitch was a slider that flashed above-average with late bite at 78-81. He didn’t really throw his changeup much, and it was below-average at best. Garcia’s command was below-average; he relied on fastball command that wavered and a slider that was inconsistent (lots of fringy sliders mixed in). He has a simple delivery, good leg drive, and great arm action from a high 3/4 arm angle, but lacks deception and has a maxed-out thick build. If he can be continue to progress, based on this look, this package should play in a middle relief role at the big league level.

Travis Wood, LHP, Sarasota (Reds)

Wood sat a 86 mph for the game with good sink on his fastball. His go-to pitch was a 72-73 mph changeup that flashed plus at was at least average every time he threw it, which was very often. His third pitch was a loopy curve at 70 with good depth that flashed average, but lacked bite, and was also thrown at a slightly higher arm angle at times and was easy to spot. Wood’s command was fringy as he had no choice but to throw the changeup very frequently, but it was good enough that FSL hitters still had trouble squaring it up. He has a maxed-out smallish frame, similar to Greg Maddux, and hides the ball well in the back of his delivery. His big league prospects, based on this look, are limited to a #5 starter if his command plays at higher levels, but more likely as a high-minors pitchability starter and extra big league arm.

Juan Francisco, 3B, Sarasota (Reds)

The one solid hitting prospect in this game was Reds 3B Juan Francisco. He had some buzz coming out of the Midwest League last year as a source of left-handed power with some holes, youth, and upside. He was all of those things today, as he’s got a complex swing with a lot of moving parts and marginal at best plate discipline. He was lunging and flailing at bad pitches and couldn’t square up good pitches.

He also has a thick build and lack of footspeed, particularly coming in on slow grounders that makes me think he can’t stick at third. The good news for Francisco is that he does have big power even when his front side leaks open, the flaws look fixable, this was just one game, and one at 10:30 AM to that point, but I wasn’t too impressed.

That night, I was able to catch a rare FSL doubleheader with a Tampa-Ft. Myers matchup, featuring righties Ivan Nova for Tampa (Yankees) and Alex Burnett for Ft. Myers (Twins).

Alex Burnett, RHP, Ft. Myers (Twins)

Burnett is a somewhat anonymous prospect for the Twins, but is a 20-year old starter in Hi-A (21 in July) and has some solid stuff. He worked at 88-90 and touched 91 in this outing and lacked movement, but commanded the fastball well. He had two versions of a curveball, with a harder one around 75 mph with late snap and flashed solid-average along with a slower show-me pitch at 68-72 with more depth and less bite meant to change the hitter’s eye level and give them something else to think about. His go-to offspeed pitch was a changeup that flashed above-average and is a present solid-average pitch with depth and fade that he could bury to get swings and misses.

He has a good idea of what he’s doing and solid command, but would fight his mechanics at times and lose the zone. I also saw him later this week in a side-work outing with similar stuff that fell off quickly after about 20 pitches, as expected. Similar to Wood, he has a maxed-out, but more solid build and if the command plays at higher levels and he continues to improve, could be a big league #5 starter, but again, is more likely to be a high-minors starter and spare arm.

Quick Aside About FSL Pitching Prospects

As you can imagine, a lot of guys in this league fit the Burnett/Wood/Garcia profile: fringy fastball, good out-pitch, average third pitch, fringy command, no fanfare. There’s probably two or three on each team and only a few make it to the big leagues with little separating them at this level. Some never improve and retire after 3 years in the FSL, but that’s why this league, as a last filter before AA, is important to look at results for a tangible view of which guy’s command and feel is working at this level, as they’re more likely to be that 1 in 100 guy to be a solid MLB starter. For example, Ian Kennedy’s stuff last year wasn’t that much better than this population of guys and he shot through the minors on his command.

Agents particularly scout this league a lot to figure out which under-the-radar guys will go from obscurity to possible MLB time (and more importantly for the agent, potential arbitration) based on their performances at this last level before AA. In AA, pretty much every decent player is represented, and in no time I’d bet the competition between agents increases and that filters its way down to the Hi-A level as well.

Ivan Nova, RHP, Tampa (Yankees)

Nova is a Yankee prospect from the Dominican Academy that has been getting a lot of buzz for his youth and stuff, but frustrates the easily-frustratable Yankee prospect watchers with results that don’t match the buzz. I mentioned in an earlier article’s comments section that Nova is a great guy with solid makeup, evident from just a short time talking to him while he charts pitches in the stands, and despite the language barrier and comical spanglish we spoke.

As for on the mound, Nova worked at 90-91 and touched 92 with a fastball that had above-average movement down and in to right-handed hitters. He would sometimes overthrow his curveball into more of a slider, but the pitch was beween 76-80 and flashed above-average with late snap, but lost bite as the game continued. His changeup also flashed above-average with great deception and late depth. So, you can see why there is buzz: the potential for three above-average pitches from a projectable 6′4 frame.

That being said, his fastball would drop to 87-90 late in the game and lost some life, his curveball wasn’t always the same pitch and lost bite, and he would hang his changeup at times. As with most young starters, he would fight his command and seemingly could use a better approach to attacking hitters, as they seemed to know what was coming at times. His mechanics are solid, his frame has room for more bulk, he’s a solid athlete with good makeup and arm action, and he has simple, repeatable motion from a classic high 3/4 arm angle.

Overall, Nova is an intriguing young arm with upside as a #3 starter if the command plays and everything develops. For the time being, he has solid-average stuff with some consistency issues but lots of upside. Developing more of a plan, some command, and a consistent out-pitch will be the things that decide Nova’s fate.

Other Notes

- Anthony Slama was pitcher that stood out of the cavalcade of boring relievers from these last two games. He has some funk in the delivery and a 3/4 to low 3/4 release point that helps give life to his live 89-92 mph fastball, sharp sweeping 76-78 mph slider, and deceptive 75-77 mph changeup. All have a chance to be above-average pitches, but he lost the zone at times and the velocity fell to 86-90 pretty quickly. That being said, scouts love to dream on what they see, and he showed us three 55 potential pitches with some deception; stamina can be learned.

He has a profile similar to Yankee prospect RHR David Robertson, who put up crazy numbers in the FSL last year and had funk as a slim righty reliever and three potentially above-average pitches that darted all over the place, but had fluctuating velocity and command problems.

- Wilson Ramos is a somewhat controversial young catching prospect for the Twins that some say is a future above-average starter and other say is just another young catcher we’ll have to wait-and-see on. From what I’ve seen in 4-5 games, he shows some tools with an above-average arm, solid defense, and pop to all fields, but has some trouble making contact due to some plate discipline problems, and doesn’t consistently show above-average defensive skills in game situations like he can. This to some degree is to be expected for a young catcher, but he’s more tooled-up prospect with a questionable bat than a fast-track sure thing at this point.

- I’ll be compiling these mini-scouting reports of FSL players from the News & Notes columns and sticking an OFP with them, then including each one in the FSL Prospects page (link at the top) to keep an ongoing list. We have also mentioned in the comments about getting the Draft Top 100 link active soon as well.

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We’re now entering the homestretch for the MLB Draft as June 5th quickly approaches. Area scouts have compiled their lists and evaluations and are stepping aside as crosscheckers, scouting directors, and other top team brass come in to see prospects and form the help form the draft board.

And, as that process continues, the draft buzz develops as teams concrete their OFPs, pref lists, their handle on player’s bonus demands, and figure out which players make sense for certain picks. We’re starting to hear such team-specific buzz along with the usual risers and fallers and have compiled a piping-hot batch of draft buzz from our MLB sources.

Inside: A potential first rounder from off everyone’s radar, a landing spot for Skipworth, a new top college closer, Boras’ latest Hosmer demands, prep pitchers in free-fall, and much more…

(Pictured above: Kyle Skipworth after hitting a homerun in the AFLAC All-American Game in August. Photo credit: Glenn Connelly)

Breakthrough Small-School Flamethrower

RHP Brad Holt had been off the scouting radar, but has planted himself securely in the top 50 picks with a breakthrough performance this spring for UNC-Wilmington. The Seahawks have made a name for themselves this year with a 21-game winning streak and appearances in the top 25 polls, but Holt is reason scouts keep coming back to see this team.

As the Saturday starter for a veteran squad, the 6′4 junior RHP Holt has been taking a 94-97 mph fastball deep into games and has been flashing an above-average slider and average changeup with solid command. The only thing making scouts pause is the Holt’s prior history of command problems, but there hasn’t been a sign of it this spring.

Multiple scouts have agreed that he will not make it out of the 2nd round, and there appears to be helium for Holt all the way into the late first round.

Skipworth Has Home in Top 10

Florida State catcher Buster Posey has been generating a lot of buzz as a potential pick for teams in the 5-10 range in June, but we’re hearing similar things about California prep backstop Kyle Skipworth. A team in that same 5-10 range has confirmed heavy interest in Skipworth and almost guaranteed he would not get past their pick. Granted MLB draft season is home to smoke screens like NFL Draft season is, so some may take any information such as this with a grain of salt, but teams frequently lock onto players this early in the process that they really love and project to be at their pick. And given positional scarcity, Skipworth may not even last long enough for us to find out if this information is legit.

Closer Heirarchy Develops

Move over Ryan Perry and Josh Fields because their may be a new top closer in this draft class. His name? Andrew Cashner, a 6-foot-6 righty out of TCU. We’ve learned that Cashner has emerged as a top 20 overall candidate with a chance of even overtaking Georgia’s dominant senior, Josh Fields as the cream of the closer crop. This spring Cashner has posted a 7-2 record with 5 saves to go along with his impressive 53 strikeouts in 35.2 innings of work. The lanky righty has reportedly flashed a fastball touching 98 MPH in recent weeks. Remember this name on draft day.

We’ve been force fed the names Ryan Perry and Josh Fields as the slam dunk top closers in the class and they warrant that. However, there are other closers not quite in Cashner’s class that have a shot at the first round or early supplemental round due to the lack of starting pitching depth in the class. Bryan Price, the owner of a 94-97 MPH heater, and the closer for Rice is also getting late first round buzz. The same goes for Texas Tech right-hander, Zach Stewart.

Hosmer’s Demands Take Next Logical Step

What will Scott Boras think of next? How about a Major League contract demand for his prized high school hitting prospect? According to our sources, Hosmer and his agent may be seeking a big league deal. I can only imagine how this will shake up the complexion of the first round if these demands hold. $7 million with a big league deal for a high school hitter? I think most teams would pass.

Eric Hosmer is not the only position player in the class that could be slipping due to the demands of his agent. Lefty slugger, Allan Dykstra of Wake Forest (also represented by Boras) is also reported to have a steep asking price. What those demands are remains to be seen, but according to sources it could drive him out of the first round.

Prep Pitchers In Peril

Let’s cut to the chase. This is not a strong year for high school pitching prospects. There is a lack of depth and quite simply a lack of elite arms altogether. And, now it seems the few that were held in high regard entering the spring are running into problems as well. Fireballing left-hander, Anthony Gose reportedly underwent an MRI this week to check out a barking left arm. The severity remains to be seen but it has been enough to spook many a crosschecker.

Gose is also not alone. Boras clients Alex Meyer and Gerrit Cole have also been slipping on the radar amongst scouts not only because of bonus demands but other concerns. Meyer has yet to experience much pleasant weather to pitch in and there are lingering makeup concerns on Cole’s head. To say that the prep pitching class is in flux is an understatement.

Did you think I was finished? The biggest news comes on the purported top prep arm in the class, Tim Melville. This spring has been a significant disappointment for many scouts in regards to Melville. It is likely his first round status is still intact but according to one crosschecker “Melville hasn’t thrown close to his summer stuff.”

As it was first reported by Baseball America, Sonny Gray is likely to miss the rest of the spring with an injury, so that also doesn’t bode well for this prep pitching class. When asked if such pitchers like Brett DeVall, Kyle Lobstein, Robbie Ross could find a home late in the first round, one unimpressed scout said “I suppose some of these guys will have to go in the first round. Scary.” That, in a nustshell, seems to be the general attitude towards this year’s crop of high school arms.

Draft Notes: Lightning Round

- Brett Hunter and his first round aspirations seem to have evaporated as teams are proceding with caution regarding his arm injury. Do not expect to see him in the first 30 picks in June. According to scouts, the injury is a major concern.

- Looking for locks? Through some crosschecker cross-referencing (now there’s a nice phrase) there are only a handful of first round locks but it appears our sources agreed for the most part. Here they are: Pedro Alvarez, Aaron Crow, Gordon Beckham, Tim Beckham, Brian Matusz, Shooter Hunt, Tanner Scheppers, Buster Posey and Justin Smoak

- Pedro Alvarez may not be slipping so much after all. Perhaps he’s no longer the favorite to go #1 overall, but scouts have been strong in saying his stock has taken no significant hit this spring.

- Miami outfielder, Dennis Raben and his back problems seem to be becoming more and more a concern for teams as well. However, scouts still like his chances of going in the 20-30 range in the first round.

- How about some news on our two top college southpaws? Christian Friedrich and Tim Murphy seem to be headed in opposite directions. Murphy, who at one point this spring seemed to be gaining momentum as potential first rounder, has taken a step back. Scouts we spoke to have come away less than thrilled with his command and consider him to be more of supplemental rounder. Friedrich on the other hand, we are hearing, is being targeted by teams in the 18-24 range in the first round.

- Players seemingly with helium right now (outside of the ones mentioned above) are Jemile Weeks, Roger Kieschnick, Zach Collier (who one scout called “the sleeper of the draft”), and Zach Putnam.

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On today, the high holiday of NFL Draft day, even the majority of baseball people I know are focused more on football than baseball. Some of that is a function of the NFL Draft becoming an enormous sporting event on the level of the Super Bowl for die-hard sports fans.

The rest is because of the natural relationship that baseball has with football. Fantasy Football season coincides nicely with the end of baseball season and players and staff typically use it to wane themselves off of months of 100% baseball, all the time. Because of this, pigskin has become the sport of choice for distracting baseball people from thinking about baseball all day.

Rather than waxing eloquent about this relationship, I’ll use the rest of the post to compare and contrast a few things I’ve noticed about the drafts and similar things you can expect to see in today’s NFL event and June’s MLB draft, all after the jump…

(Pictured right, Arkansas RB Darren McFadden)

The first thing I noticed in the ESPN onslaught on coverage leading up the NFL Draft is that common refrain that running backs tends to drop. And it isn’t just some abstract thought that makes sense in one person’s head, like how Dusty Baker thinks Adam Dunn walking so much is bad because he clogs the bases.

Running backs tend to drop because they are the most athletic players on the field. And there are so many good, athletic running backs that are the best players on their college teams, but there are only so many spots for regular carries in an NFL backfield. So they drop.

Said another way, a pretty good RB at a mid-range school that becomes a 7th round draft pick, say current Giant (and former Marshall RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, is still so athletic, that little things that make him a 7th round pick (that scouts missed on, apparently) make a 7th round pick as a RB more likely to contribute to an NFL team than a 7th rounder from another position.

Many draft experts sum this up by saying “don’t take a running back in the first round, you can find them later,” when this is really true about any position. What they mean is that it’s easier to find productive NFL running backs later in the draft because it’s the most athletic position on the field, thus making a late-round pick of that position very qualified to be a producive NFL player.

And why do they drop if there’s so many good ones? Because there’s so many good ones and only so many spots, simple supply and demand.

Now, another similar thing Frankie and I will say, and what I think you’ll see in some form on MLB draft day is that first basemen will fall, except in this case for a very different reason. Mainly, because first baseman are the least athletic players. They can only play at one position, so their bat and power must be great, and teams just aren’t going to bet on guys withe no positional flexibility, all things being equal, when they can bet on a guy that does have it.

So why do they drop if they can hit so well? Because that’s all they can do.

Really, it’s the exact opposite and interesting to think about, for me at least.

The other big difference, despite recent rhetoric from Bud Selig’s office indicating otherwise, is that the bonuses in football are leaps and bounds more ridiculous than MLB draft bonuses.

As said in an earlier post about Boras client’s asking prices, I mentioned that while MLB and the clubs want to keep bonuses down to be able to spread bonuses to more players and stop draft bonus inflation, they all still admit that if a player plays one season in the big leagues, he more than pays for himself. And the only exceptions are players with enormous bonuses that almost always play at least a few seasons, if nothing else because they got such a big bonus.

The #1 pick in the NFL Draft (Dolphins’ OT Jake Long) will instantly become the highest paid player in the league at his position and one of the highest paid at any position. If he makes a few Pro Bowls in his first 5 years, he still may not be worth all that money. And the top 5-10 picks still make tens of millions in guaranteed money that grizzled veterans will never see, and unless you’re getting a big standout All-Pro player for those 5-6 years of control, you’re coming out behind. And the price only goes up each year.

I realize that baseball draftees are much farther than producing at the highest level than football draftees, but any baseball draftee making the league minimum or more as a signing bonus ($350,000 or so), is expected by his team to reach the majors. If the club is right, they get profit from that transaction for the first 6 years, sometimes in the tens of millions of dollars.

And with a player like David Price getting between $5-10 million dollars at the top of the draft, that cost is still outweighed by one season as a contributor, using simple, freely-available economic stats like Baseball Prospectus’ MORP. That’s one thing about baseball that will never really change since big league salaries will always grow faster than draft salaries, or at least not fast enough to ever change this equation in any material way.

I covered earlier in a Notes column just a taste of the legend of Tampa prep 1B Jamie Mallard. Frankie and I both believe that mechanical breakdowns and scouting reports should be separated, so the legend will continue now in part two, and later this weekend with part three in a scouting report.

For now, I think Mallard’s swing is the majority of the scouting report and also a great exercise for establishing certain philosophies about breaking down an amateur’s swing. As I said in the previous column, it is hard to talk about Mallard and use anything but extremes.

That being said, it is because of those extremes that he could be a dynamic big league slugger. Or he could flame out the low minors. That’s the beauty of the draft, right now, no one is wrong, and especially with high schoolers, there’s a lot of room for disagreement between reasonable people.

You can being you own evaluation of arguably the best power prospect in the 2008 draft after the jump…

Here’s a quick first look at the two best swings I got of Mallard, performance-wise. The left one is a long HR to left-centerfield (easily over 400 feet) and the right one is a gapper to right-centerfield that he was thrown out trying to stretch into a double.

I would imagine even the most amateur of baseball fans could see there’s some funk in that swing. Let’s break it down, step-by-step.

Setup: His legs are about 1.5 shoulder lengths apart, pretty standard but far enough apart that if you stride much farther, it could lead to over striding. Most hitters in this situation do the short stride, or pick up their foot and put it back in the same place.

His shoulders appear to be square to the pitcher from this angle (confirmed in a later game that they are). Everything appears to be slightly bent, but one part is flexed that I don’t like.

His elbow is making the classic chicken wing elbow, which many hitters employ, but get out of as the ball approaches. Mallard never gets out of it, and the general side-effect is the swing path being loopier. Just try it sitting in your seat, doing the arms part of a swing with your elbow sticking out—you either over-extend your arms to get out of it, or the first few moves toward the ball are loopier (down instead of direct to the ball). Not horrible, but not desirable, depends on how he bounces back from putting himself in that position, just like the stride.

Plate Discipline: This is yet another spot where Mallard cannot be explained without extreme language. You can look at his stats for an indication, but we all know HS stats, especially for big sluggers are skewed, particularly with walks (lots of unintentional intentional walks) and strikeouts (inferior competition). That being said, his OBP is .704, which is good at any level, and his K/BB rate is 25/6. And, in this game from the video, his first at-bat was a quick walk, followed by a long at-bat ending in a HR. Mallard watched 10 straight pitches, then the next one was a HR. That also is impressive for a HS hitter to be that selective and focused. Against this competition, he looks like Frank Thomas—a big guy toying with the pitching that will sit there until you throw him a pitch he can hit out of the county. And for whatever reason, he keeps getting those pitches and doesn’t miss them. I didn’t see him swing and miss in 3 games.

Disclaimer: I’ll give this it’s own section since there isn’t a good spot to go over it in this format. I realize this video is in a high school game with a metal bat against a guy throwing low-to-mid-80s, and that it’s pretty dumb on my part to use this as my only evidence for speaking of Mallard’s hitability and power in such revered terms. I’ve talked to scouts and team personnel that have seen him against 90 mph fastballs, with wood bats, and one guy that even threw him BP at a team workout, and they all feel exactly the same as I do. Basically, these abilities we know will play at least in the low minors, since he’s been as successful as he was in this game against low minors competition with wood bats. So that’s why I said earlier his floor seems to be flaming out in Hi-A or AA.

Head Movement: As you might guess here, less movement is better. Given the somewhat wild bat cock and movement before the pitch comes, Mallard’s head has to move some, but he keeps it about as still as you can during this move. The head goes down as he readies to hit, and forward as his weight shifts. It’s more than you like to see, but it’s still as his body is at contact, so this is just another example to me of an unorthodox approach working for him. Not fantastic in this regard, but if the bat works as well as it does with the moving parts, the head is moving as little as possible given the moving parts, so he gets a passing grade.

Balance/Lower Half: I think this is where some gains can be made without drastically altering Mallard’s swing. If you look at this super-slow GIF below, you can see that he is “spinning” on his back leg, or instead of rotating is body around his front leg (as desired), his center of his weight during the swing is too far back. I’d say about 90% of his weight is on his back leg, but he still stays relatively level, without leaning back and trying too hard to loft the ball, somewhat amazingly.

You can also see that at the point of contact, his knees are locked. Essentially, he’s an out-of-this-world hitter with enormous power and he isn’t even using his bottom half.

Now, you can get into a lot of trouble by either mandating him to lose 20 lbs (sorry, Prince Fielder), or trying to make him look conventional at the plate. Being quirky is part of why he works, so if you’re going to fix him in any way, it has to be slight stuff and I think the bottom half could be slight enough for him to improve a lot and has low potential to mess with what’s working.

There may be growing pains and you don’t like drafting a guy for two tools (bat, power) and trying to change them both, but I think this is a part of his swing that gains could be made.

Stride: These days, it seems everyone is advocating, as am I, a smaller, shorter stride, that is just a mechanism for timing the swing, rather than the engine behind it. Mallard’s certainly isn’t small, but it is relatively short. As I mentioned above, anything longer than short would have him over-striding, which is an enormous problem that snowballs into other things you just don’t want to deal with. Mallard’s does seem unnecessarily big and loud, but it does the job, and is one thing at first glance you want to change, but really shouldn’t mess with.

Swing Path: As you might not expect, Mallard has outstanding contact skills as well, and this is due in part to his swing path. One of the things you look for in HS hitters to gauge, beyond raw mechanics, their ability to hit at higher levels, is the ability to square the ball up against good pitching, since wood bats have smaller sweet spots. Mallard has an uncanny ability to do this, and his chicken-wing “flaw” actually helps to loop his swing to be in the zone longer, but his bat speed and strength overcome that to a large degree. Gifted hitters get away with flaws and Mallard is a great example of this.

Mallard also has, predictably, great power and part of this comes from his swing path being long in the zone and also having a lofted finish without being a reckless, swing-and-miss uppercut.

That being said, this long-in-the-zone swing path via the chicken wing still creates a bit of a hitch, and may affect his plate coverage at higher levels. Maybe his bat speed and hit-ability cover it completely, maybe just part of it, but it will likely create at least some problem that will need adjustments in higher levels.

Extension: This is the other area I think a small tweak could make a big difference. The still to the right is of the home run. Mallard is completely extended here, and almost is locking his arms like he does his legs, which really saps his power. Hitting coaches say that many big guys hit for more power with they get their arms extended, but this is over-extended.

Mallard does do a good job, despite extending a little too far at contact, to keeping his arms bent up until that point and not creating an arm bar, which affects the swing path and contact-making ability while cutting off power.

Summation: As you might’ve guessed given the flaws yet still Ruthian power, Mallard has excellent elements of power: torque, lofted swing path, strong wrists, bat speed, bat in the zone a long time, aggressive hip turn leading the bat head, etc. And as said above, that’s getting great results without even using his bottom half, so there’s room for more upside. He also has what you don’t expect in a young hitter with his profile: outstanding plate discipline and contact skills, even against top competition with wood.

I’ll go into more details as far as a long-term projection in the forthcoming scouting report, but I felt his swing is funky enough to warrant a full breakdown before I wade into his draft prospects later. I think you’re looking at a big league hitter and whether he goes to college at UCF or not really depends on his own bonus requirements. If a team can get past the body to see the skills he has and believes in his makeup and ability to make the inevitable adjustment, you might see him playing pro ball soon. Other teams won’t even consider him because they think his weight indicates his work ethic in other areas, which very well may be a fair assessment. The big question is whether he’s Walter Young/Calvin Pickering or Cecil Fielder/Ryan Howard, and that’s what makes the draft so fun: no one knows for sure.

Mechanical Comparison: Cecil Fielder

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]]> http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/04/25/jamiemallardswing/feed/ http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/04/24/wademileyreport/ http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/04/24/wademileyreport/#comments Fri, 25 Apr 2008 03:33:43 +0000 fpiliere44 http://www.saberscouting.com/?p=152 By Frankie Piliere

There are always safe picks in the draft. Those picks may not have the most upside but there’s a good chance that you know exactly what you’re getting. Wade Miley, a 6-foot-2 lefty I got a good look at in the Cape over the summer, fits that mold perfectly.

Miley has been a strikeout pitcher with Southeastern Louisiana, and although I don’t expect him to be that type of pitcher as a pro, it does show his advanced feel for pitching is just overwhelming college hitters.

He’s not the most dazzling pitcher in terms of stuff but he’ll give someone a very safe pitching prospect in the top 5 rounds of the 2007 draft. Check out his scouting report after the jump…

Wade Miley, LHP - Wareham Gatemen (Southeastern Louisiana)

Present/Future Grades

Fastball - 50/55

Slider - 55/55

Changeup - 50/50

Command - 55/55

Physical Description - Strongly built, well proportioned frame. Looks durable with a thick lower half and broad shoulders. Lacks big projection but has room to grow in lower half. Looks like Jarrod Washburn.

Fastball - Not overpowering, sits at 88-89 MPH, bumps 91. Produces some late cut with across body throwing motion. Looks to be throwing harder and has plus command of his fastball. Runs it on lefties with two-seamer, works both corners. Doesn’t miss bats with the heat but hitters can’t square it.

Slider - Good, sweeping lefty breaking ball, already a plus pitch. 11-5 break and very tough on left-handers. Throws it at 78-81 but takes off and puts on occassionally. Sharp, late action, throws in any count. Looks like it’s coming from behind lefty’s back, likes to drop down on it occassionally. Strikeout pitch. Slurvy at times.

Changeup - Average differential at 75-77 MPH but doesn’t fool many to make it a swing and miss pitch. Telegraphs, turns hand over and slows his arm speed. Very dangerous pitch for him and frequently catches a lot of plate. His across body motion produces plus fade but he’ll need to spot this pitch much more consistently and sell it more. Needs to locate better.

Mechanics - Clean arm action. Lacks great arm speed but looks smooth and lacks major mechanical flaws. Throws across his body slightly, making him tough on lefties. Hides the ball well. Pitches from high-3/4 arm slot. No windup, uses lower body and arm just follows.

Notes - Won’t be overpowering but can compete at a high level with pitchability and command. Pitches to all four quadrants and already has plus command. Gets, the ball throws the ball, gets in a groove and has low pitch counts. Strike thrower, willing to pitch to contact. Will always be tough on lefties. Must develop his third pitch. Shows good presence.

Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 54
Present Group: P, Future Group: C
Projected Role: 4th starter
Draft Projection: 3rd-4th round pick
Overall Comparison: Nate Robertson (with better command)

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I’ve been hitting (and will continue to hit, although metaphorically) high school games this week because it is district tournament week here in Florida, and some draft prospects are playing their last games of the season, while others are just getting started on a long journey to the state tournament in Sarasota.

I caught three legit top-5 rounds prospects in the last few days, a couple top minor league prospects, and have lined up the top 2009 high schooler in the country, among others for the rest of the week, so it should be a pretty hectic week with lots of content coming as soon as I’m home long enough to type it.

Inside this News & Notes: Casey Kelly versus Anthony Ferrara showdown with 40 scouts in attendance, A Prince Fielder-Babe Ruth combo HS prospect, and more FSL prospect updates, all after the jump…

(Pictured right: Casey Kelly)

Kelly Outduels Ferrara In Marquee Matchup

The scouts were out in full force to see what was going to be the last game of the high school career of either Sarasota’s SS/RHP Casey Kelly or Riverview’s LHP Anthony Ferrara. Both had been projected from as early as high school freshman up until about 10 months ago as being first round picks. Kelly is still projected as a first rounder, but Ferrara’s stock has dropped with concerns about the health of his arm and his velocity into the mid-rounds. But, since I know you all wanted to, you can throw the records out the window when these rivals meet, and in this case an extra twist was that the tournament was being played at Ferrara’s school.

The story in the early going was how many scouts were in attendance. One team had 4-5 scouting personnel on hand, and more than a few teams had multiple guys in for this game. Needless to say, Kelly has some serious helium with a few teams in the top half of the first round following him closely.

I’ve discussed Kelly in a previous Sarasota Classic notes and Draft Buzz columns and in the Buzz column specifically mentioned the talk of him possibly going in the first round as a pitcher. What I reported in that column is what I saw tonight, sitting 91-93 for half the start, settling it at 88-91 for the other half, but showing a present plus breaking ball was what really separated him as a pitching prospect. The crowd (and I) were split on whether it was a hard spike curve or two-plane slider, but that is besides the point. Kelly continues to show all the making of Derek Jeter with better defense, and now flashes some Michael Main type stuff on the mound just in case he can’t hit in the upper levels.

Kelly and Georgia’s SS Gordon Beckham are two players rising that could either shoot up the draft into the 10-15 (Kelly) and 5-7 (Beckham) pick ranges, or could end up dropping like so many players do down in the first round to the big spenders, as both appear worthy of out-of-the-box deals at this point.

Ferrara certainly looked the part of a solid pick today as well. He’s a solid-bodied LHP with a little projection left that worked at a low three quarters arm angle from 88-90 with the fastball, featured a two-plane curveball, and showed feel for a change. Ferrara can project without much imagination to 3 solid-average pitches with some command, similar to a 2006 3rd round pick from an Orlando high school, LHP Justin Edwards. Ferrara is bigger and has a little more velocity, but Edwards had a tighter breaking ball and less injury concerns.

As for the game, Kelly went the distance as #3 nationally-ranked Sarasota squeaked by 5-4. After getting out of a jam in the 6th inning with a strikeout on a nasty breaking ball, he broke out Tiger Woods’ trademark primal scream and repeated fist pumps. You can easily see why scouts love this guy.

Ever Written Prince FIelder and Babe Ruth in the Comparison Section of a Scouting Report?

If you like off-the-beaten-path draft prospects and unique profile guys, 1B Jamie Mallard from Tampa’s Middleton High is your guy. I’ll try to be delicate, but he’s a big guy, bigger than Prince Fielder. I tried to think of a body comparison when I first saw him and couldn’t think of anyone but Cee-lo, the lead singer for Gnarls Barkley. That struck me as mean, but was all I could think of for a 6′1, 250 (?) guy.

He entered the year as a punch line for scouts that was sure to fulfill his commitment to UCF (my alma-mater). I was content with seeing him for 3 years in Orlando until someone told me he’s been mashing his way into the top 5 rounds and has the best power in the draft, so I went to check him out this week.

I think when I post the full report, he will become an internet sensation the likes of which we’ve never seen before. Here’s his stats as of late last week: .574/.704/1.103 and here’s his stat page. You can’t talk about Mallard without using extremes—his size, his speed, his bat, plate discipline, power, and hittability are all off the scales, and you probably know which ones are high and which are low. I got some good pictures and video of a HR and 2B he hit last week and the swing breakdown/report should be great. Here’s a teaser to keep you going until I post that: not only does he play 3B primarily, but he also pitches…sidearm. He’s more Babe Ruth than anyone I’ve ever seen.

FSL Prospect Update

I’m about to head to a 10:30 AM start (yeah, I know) of a Clearwater-Sarasota game featuring Edgar Garcia, Travis Wood, Adrian Cardenas, Juan Francisco, and Drew Stubbs. Should be good prospecting all around. Then tonight, depending on how some HS games fall and which games get scheduled when, I should be seeing Plant High SS Mychal Givens, a consensus top HS player in the 2009 Draft class, and Jim Callis’ 5th overall prospect for ‘09 (behind 3 college guys and one HS pitcher). I’ve heard fables of his tools as well, so that should be a good one as well. If the game ends up at 5 pm rather than 7 pm, I’ll also be able to hit a minor league game afterwards. This is going to be a busy week.

I saw Joe Savery, Adrian Cardenas, and Travis Snider again this week and should have reports on all up this week, along with a swing breakdown of Snider. I said there was something I didn’t like about him, and after going frame-by-frame on his swing spotted at least on reason, possibly the reason, why he isn’t making a lot of hard contact thus far. I like to think my subconscious hitting coach is so good that I’ll dislike a guy because of a flaw I can only see in super slow-mo, so I’ll stick with that.

And don’t fear Yankee fans who keep asking, a return visit to see Ryan Pope and my first ride this season on the Ivan Nova express will be coming shortly as well.

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It’s very easy to write about prospects that the whole world knows about. From a scouting perspective—and I’ve seen said this before—it is far more exciting to write about a “discovery.”

One discovery that I think I made over the summer was Nate Freiman, a first baseman playing for the Orleans Cardinals. You probably have heard little to nothing about Nate as a draft prospect mainly because he’s not flashy, can look awkward, doesn’t play for one of the top baseball programs and doesn’t have draft history under his belt.

For you draft junkies out there, look out for this 6′8 first baseman (for Duke he is currently catching, yes at 6′8) to be picked somewhere around the third round. He really impressed me as a pure, natural hitter. Check out his scouting report after the jump….

Nate Freiman, 1B - Orleans Cardinals (Duke)

Present/Future Grades

Hitting - 55/60

Power - 50/60

Speed - 50/50

Fielding - 50/50

Arm - 45/45

Physical Description - Extra tall, lean and lanky. Strong looking young man, also looks gawky and awkward. A lot of room to grow and fill out. Very long legs, looks young and still somewhat immature. Looks like Richie Sexson. Good, strong athlete but lacks fast twitch muscles.

Hitting - Not pretty but just flat out hits. Puts bat on ball. Looks very comfortable with a wood bat. Short swing, very quick wrists, gets to and squares the ball. No trouble with good righty breaking balls and spins on fastballs inside. Drops his hands, brings them back up, ala Cecil Fielder. Appears to be a timing device, as they get back into position. Very low effort swing, ball jumps off his bat. Great hand eye coordination and just knows how to hit. Covers the plate, no problems with particular pitches, very complete hitter. Extremely unorthodox but don’t be fooled, a well schooled hitter. Approach similar to Derek Jeter.

Power - Hits line drives right now, doesn’t lift the ball a whole lot. Definitely has big power potential but is currently a line drive hitter right now. Shots seem to have a second gear and if he can learn to lift the ball the home runs will come. Has raw power to all fields, and game usable pull power currently. Hits the ball as hard as anyone. Potential for plus power.

Speed - Not a speed player, at his size it’s a surprise he moves as well as he does. About an average runner, runs beter underway. Surprisingly agile but slow foot speed, long strides.

Fielding - Will need to play first base. Every play is an adventure in left field. Bad routes and bad jumps. Looks very solid at first base. Soft hands, pretty smooth around the bag. Average range and turns the double play consistently well. No problem making the throws to second base. Not going to be a defensive presence but his size and athleticism should allow him to be an adequate defender.

Arm - In the oufield, he’s limited to left field. Average arm at best, but plays more than well enough at 1b. Makes accurates throws and gets ride of the ball quickly.

Notes - Not going to look real smooth in anything he does but should always produce with the bat. If he can learn to lift the ball, his great strength and approach could allow him to be a 40 home run type hitter. Good makeup, works hard at his craft. Polished hitting prospect.

Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 54
Present Group: P, Future Group: C
Projected Role: Everyday 1B, 5th or 6th hitter in a lineup
Draft Projection: Third round pick
Overall Comparison: Richie Sexson (with much better bat handling)

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